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My name is Johnny Phillips.

I am head of analytics for a Scandinavian betting syndicate. Some of the content here is reproduced from articles I write for their websites.

OddsModel

OddsInvest

I can’t share most of the analytics work I do. That insight is proprietary, and given exclusively to the trader clients who are part of the OddsInvest syndicate. But I can share a few of our numbers, and also write about the mindset that is required to win at betting.

Almost everyone who bets loses. What makes us different is not luck, or having access to better data or privileged inside information. It’s fundamentally about adopting a different mindset. An approach to probability and prediction that is different to how most people think. It’s the way winning people think.

I’m a former professional gambler, and before that I was a bookmaker odds-compiler & trader. I’ve been in the sports betting industry as both a game-keeper and poacher.

With experience I’ve learned to understand the true nature of probability. Of randomness, and the law of big numbers. Of the futility of making predictions. The power of compound interest. The real meaning of ‘value’.

I don’t have much time for ‘expert’ opinion. I like evidence. Opinions are over-rated. They are attractive though, because they can be interesting. I’m not immune. I’m stupid enough to have strong opinions on loads of subjects, but smart enough to know that they are all pretty much worthless.

I hope you find the opinions here interesting, and that you disagree with most of them. The stuff about the way winning people think is non-negotiable though!

Feel free to get in touch.

Email: johnny@soccerbrain.co.uk

Twitter: @pauliewalnuts86

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